Everyone Has Decided What This Market Is. I Haven’t.

I come into this Post Labor Day period, a little more focused on the macro economic factors than usual. I’m so curious what the run up to the end of the year will look like.

Will there be a wave of IPOs? M&A?Will the AI trade only get stronger?

What do the midterms hold?

Will valuations continue to rise?

Will token growth flourish or start to slow? What about token prices?

Does money leave venture or flow into it? Or will the dam break? If it does, what will break it?

I find myself reading the WSJ more closely, even tuning into CNBC a bit more (on the treadmill, half paying attention). This was the year of fewer IPOs but huge ones. Harder to raise but some massive rounds. A tale of two markets, but will it continue?

Everyone already seems to have decided. It’s 2021 again, or it’s nothing like 2021, or AGI is here, or the bear case is nonsense. My experience says that whatever anyone predicts, the black (or white?) swan renders it all moot anyway. And maybe it doesn’t matter at all and I should just focus on seed investing – besides I’m planting seeds for ten years out but something about this moment feels soft and shifty, which is not something I remember worrying about much before.

What are you watching between now and December?