Nobody Can Agree on Whether Venture Even Works

We’re at peak momentum investing right now, and there’s real money in all of it, that’s what makes this so complicated. You can call it a bubble, but it’s not all a mirage. Real people are making real money, but there’s also a ton of noise and hype around it, and it’s only gotten harder to separate the two. VC is a funny business and this is a crazy time to be in it, and even crazier to be learning it now.

Michael Dempsey wrote a very sarcastic post this week telling VCs to just give up, since unless you’re in the seven or eight companies that matter, you’re irrelevant. It’s a joke. This week’s deal announcements made it feel a lot less like one 😉

I’ve spent way too much time on Twitter looking at VC returns and analysis, and the comments. One camp: outstanding, some of the best IRRs anyone’s tracked. Another camp, same numbers: doesn’t beat the S&P. Vibes or performance or listicles, and yet no one can agree on who’s good, or if the asset class works at all!

As always, timing and access matter more than we like to admit. Cursor, founded in 2022, just sold to SpaceX and xAI for $60B, more than any venture-backed company has ever gone for on its first sale. Get into the right company at the right moment and you look like a genius overnight.

So should the rest of us just pack it in? Not sure I have a clean answer. It’s a long, slow business, and moments like this make you really question your own judgment and process. Guess you got to keep your head down, and off X as much as you can 😉