Your Hit Rate Is Fixed. Your Number of Shots Isn’t.

VCs talk about being default YES to investing. But I think default YES should be on curating serendipity.

My first memory of this was when I was 19 and I almost didn’t make the drive from Chicago to Madison. I was about to have surgery, and didn’t feel like being social. Fortunately I went anyway. Thankfully, I met my wife.

Thirty years later I’m watching my son pack for college and it’s the only advice I keep coming back to. Not major or grades, but a mindset. Default yes. Show up to more things than feel worth it.

VC underscores this reality. We see thousands of companies each year and back a dozen or so. The hit rate is essentially fixed. The only variable I actually control is the denominator — how many founders I meet, how many events I go to, how many posts I write (ironic I know;). Some of our best investments trace back to something I almost skipped. It’s why where you live/work matters more than people admit.

Every week I’m negotiating with myself. Skip the event. Skip the call. Don’t write the incremental post. The lazy version of me is very persuasive.

The world has more randomness in it than we admit. The party, the coffee that has no obvious point, the post you’re not sure anyone needs — you can’t know which one matters. You can only increase your exposure to the possibility.

Optimize for shots on goal.

Most of them miss. One changes everything.