The Hardest Call in Venture Isn’t What to Back. It’s Whether to Sell.
We’re trained to source, evaluate, and back, but not how to make a one-way valuation call on a private company with the window closing.
We’re trained to source, evaluate, and back, but not how to make a one-way valuation call on a private company with the window closing.
In hedge funds, your performance is marked daily. In venture? It’s much murkier.
The same stats could describe radically different companies now, so the labels tell you almost nothing about the risk profile.
Raising lean assumes you can predict what the next round rewards. Lately, that’s gotten very hard to call.
It works like a venture portfolio. Make enough careful bets, and the odds compound in your favor over time.
Picking well used to be the job. Now, GPs who can’t build an organization are in trouble.